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Palestinian Pinochet Making His Move?
There’s something a little misleading in the media reports that routinely describe the fighting in Gaza as pitting Hamas against Fatah forces or security personnel “loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas.” That characterization suggests somehow that this catastrophic civil war that has killed more than 25 Palestinians since Sunday is a showdown between Abbas and the Hamas leadership — which simply isn’t true, although such a showdown would certainly conform to the desires of those running the White House Middle East policy.
The Fatah gunmen who are reported to have initiated the breakdown of the Palestinian unity government and provoked the latest fighting may profess fealty to President Abbas, but it’s not from him that they get their orders. The leader to whom they answer is Mohammed Dahlan, the Gaza warlord who has long been Washington’s anointed favorite to play the role of a Palestinian Pinochet. And while Dahlan is formally subordinate to Abbas, whom he supposedly serves as National Security Adviser, nobody believes that Dahlan answers to Abbas — in fact, it was suggested at the time that Abbas appointed Dahlan only under pressure from Washington, which was irked by the Palestinian Authority president’s decision to join a unity government with Hamas.
If Dahlan takes orders from anyone at all, it’s certainly not from Abbas. Abbas has long recognized the democratic legitimacy and popularity of Hamas, and embraced the reality that no peace process is possible unless the Islamists are given the place in the Palestinian power structure that their popular support necessitates. He has always favored negotiation and cooperation with Hamas — much to the exasperation of the Bush Administration, and also of the Fatah warlords whose power of patronage was threatened by the Hamas election victory — and could see the logic of the unity government proposed by the Saudis even when Washington couldn’t. Indeed, as the indispensable Robert Malley and Hussein Agha note, nothing has hurt Abbas’s political standing as much as the misguided efforts of Washington to boost his standing in the hope of undermining the elected Hamas government.
Needless to say, only an Administration as deluded about its ability to reorder Arab political realities in line with its own fantasies — and also, frankly, as utterly contemptuous of Arab life and of Arab democracy, empty sloganizing notwithstanding — as the current one has proved to be could imagine that
the Palestinians could be starved, battered and manipulated into choosing a Washington-approved political leadership. Yet, that’s exactly what the U.S. has attempted to do ever since Hamas won the last Palestinian election, imposing a financial and economic chokehold on an already distressed population, pouring money and arms into the forces under Dahlan’s control, and eventually adapting itself to funnel monies only through Abbas, as if casting in him in the role of a kind of Quisling-provider would somehow burnish his appeal among Palestinian voters. (As I said, their contempt for Arab intelligence knows no bounds. )
But while the hapless Abbas is little more than a reluctant passenger in Washington’s strategy — and will, I still believe, repair to his former exile lodgings in Qatar in the not too distant future — Mohammed Dahlan is its point man, the warlord who commands the troops and who has been spoiling for a fight with Hamas since they had the temerity to trounce his organization at the polls on home turf.
Dahlan’s ambitions clearly coincided with plans drawn up by White House Middle East policy chief, Elliot Abrams — a veteran of the Reagan Administration’s Central American dirty wars — to arm and train Fatah loyalists to prepare them to topple the Hamas government. If Mahmoud Abbas has been reluctant to embrace the confrontational policy promoted by the White House, Dahlan has no such qualms. And given that Abbas has no political base of his own, he is dependent entirely on Washington and Dahlan.
Seeing the disastrous implications of the U.S. policy, the Saudis appeared to have put the kibosh on Abrams’ coup plan by drawing Abbas into a unity government with Hamas. And as Mark Perry at Conflict Forum detailed in an excellent analysis Dahlan was just about the only thing that the U.S. had going for it in terms of resisting the move towards a unity government. Although his fretting and sulking in Mecca couldn’t prevent the deal, the U.S. appears to have helped him fight back afterwards by ensuring that he was appointed national security adviser, a move calculated to provoke Hamas, whose leaders tend to view Dahlan as little more than a torturer and a de facto enforcer for Israel.
But Dahlan appears to have made his move when it came to integrating the Palestinian Authority security forces (currently dominated by Fatah) by drawing in Hamas fighters and subjecting the forces to the control of a politically neutral interior minister. Dahlan simply refused, and set off the current confrontations by ordering his men out onto the street last weekend without any authorization from the government of which he is supposedly a part.
The new provocation appears consistent with a revised U.S. plan, reported on by Mark Perry and Paul Woodward, that emphasized the urgency of toppling the unity government. They suggest the plan emanates from Abrams, who they say is operating at cross purposes with Condi Rice’s efforts to appease the Arab moderate regimes by reviving some form of peace process. They note, for example, that Jewish American sources have told the Forward and Haaretz that Abrams recently briefed Jewish Republicans and made clear to them that Rice’s efforts were merely a symbolic exercise aimed at showing Arab allies that the U.S. was “doing something,” but that President Bush would ensure that nothing would come of them, in the sense that Israel would not be required to make any concessions.
Whatever the precise breakdown within the Bush Administration, it’s plain that Dahlan, like Pinochet a quarter century, would not move onto a path of confrontation with an elected government unless he believed he had the sanction of powerful forces abroad to do so. If does move to turn the current street battle into a frontal assault on the unity government, chances are it will be because he got a green light from somewhere — and certainly not from Mahmoud Abbas.
But the confrontation under way has assumed a momentum of its own, and it may now be beyond the capability of the Palestinian leadership as a whole to contain it. If that proves true, the petulance that has substituted for policy in the Bush Administration’s response to the 2006 Palestinian election will have succeeded in turning Gaza into Mogadishu. But it may be too much to expect the Administration capable of anything different — after all, they’re still busy turning Mogadishu into Mogadishu all over again.
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12 Responses to “Palestinian Pinochet Making His Move?”
1..
By the way, Danny Rubinstein of Haaretz has an interesting article giving the context of the breakdown of security in Gaza:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/859556.html
Posted by Peter H | May 16th, 2007 11:39 am
2..
By the way, Danny Rubinstein of Haaretz has an interesting article describing the root causes of Gaza’s breakdown:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/859556.html
Posted by Peter H | May 16th, 2007 11:39 am
3..
Peter! This tells me that you don’t click on my links, because that story was the first one linked to in my piece! Your Danny is one of my best sources on this stuff!
Posted by Tony | May 16th, 2007 11:46 am
4..
Tony! This tells me that your links are too obtuse, because I didn’t click on it either.
Posted by Steve | May 16th, 2007 9:04 pm
5..
Salvador Allende had no weapons. Hamas does. According to this Haaretz article by Avi Issacharrof (hope you didn’t link to it already (-: ), Fatah seems to be no match for Hamas. This was also the case during the last round of fighting. If Dhahlan has no political base, no legitimacy, no popularity and now no muscle either, what exactly is he to do other than cause the deaths of Palestinians for no gain? (Though this may be an end in and of itself.)
Also, note Hosni Mubarak’s anti Hamas comments. He criticized them as never intending to sign a peace deal with Israel. That may be true, but I doubt Israel’s welfare is Mubarak’s concern. But Mubarak’s welfare and the (il)legitimacy of his government, particularly in the face of the Muslim Brotherhoods rising popularity and ties with Hamas, is his concern.
Put simply, If Hamas survives this attempt to destroy it, If the U.S. leaves Iraq in disgrace and if Iran pursues its nuclear program despite U.S./E.U. best efforts, Mubarak and his ilk are in trouble.
Posted by Ziad | May 17th, 2007 1:08 am
6..
If Dahlan indeed has as little popular support as believed than how long is he going to survive a confrontation with Hamas? I suspect, not long. He’ll be assasinated, not necessarily directly by Hamas, but simply by one of the many enemies he’s made in Palestine.
Regardless, it’s a pipe dream for Israel and the U.S. to imagine that somehow they’ll install Dahlan as a Palestinian Pinochet. Like it or not, Pinochet had two major things going for him internally: the backing of the armed forces, and a significant portion of the Chilean population. I frankly don’t know what Dahlan’s support is - maybe someone can expand on that.
Posted by Alex Morgan | May 17th, 2007 2:14 am
7..
@ Alex,
I think Dhahlan’s “support” is imposed starvation. The plan would be that after extreme poverty, the Palestinians would agree to be led by anyone who could end it. If there is some fighting between those who wish to submit and those who wish to resist then so much the better.
The plan is ruthless but it may work as human beings can only endure so much.
Posted by Ziad | May 17th, 2007 3:30 am
8..
If I Didn’t Know Better, I’d Think This Gigantic Grey Creature With The Tusks Here In The Room With Us Is An Elephant
It’s well worth reading this post by Tony Karon at Rootless Cosmopolitan: “Palestinian Pinochet Making His Move?” Be sure to check out all the links as well. Few Americans are even aware of the Palestinian mini-civil war going on now…
Posted by A Tiny Revolution | May 17th, 2007 4:56 pm
9..
Interestingly, Hamas leadership in Gaza seems to benefit the Israeli Right, while the more moderate Abbas/Fatah/Dahlan leadership will benefit the Israeli Left.
With Hamas in power, and Abbas gone, there would be little or no pressure on Israel to compromise. And little internal support for compromise either. A military or siege approach will be favored.
If Hamas crumbles, and Abbas or Dahlen take over, the problems for the Israelis are very large: Do we sign a deal? Can we trust them? What happens if we sign a deal with Abbas but later on Hamas makes a comeback? How do we keep the Euros on our side? The headaches are enormous.
Perhaps the best plan for Israel is to assassinate Dahlen and Abbas but make it look like Hamas did it. Or even al-Queda.
Posted by Fred | May 17th, 2007 5:30 pm
10..
Sure fred,
Murder a few more people. That oughta help.
Posted by Doug | May 17th, 2007 6:10 pm
11..
Fred brings an interesting point about large issues for Israel when a more moderate Palestinian party is in power..It seems flagrant to see that it bears more pressure on an Isreali government, who hasn’t shown signs of wanting peace for many years now. No matter how long some Israeli officials defend their argument of what pre-conditions must be present before signing peace, there always seems to be something preventing it from happening in the first place. Knowing and having read the short history of Israel, many intellectuals are certain that Israel is still not ready to correct its colonial policies into Palestinian Occupied territory.
It is now flagrant and a tremendous reason for such organizations as Hamas to flourish. Israel has simply not done enough to prevent young muslims from believing that Israel is the enemy. Au contraire, its giving daily examples through violence which is witnessed by this Palestinian youth. It becomes very easy for Hamas or other muslim extremist to grow, the proof for them is present everyday. Hamas feeds and recruits more of this youth at alarming numbers. Hamas relies on Israel’s belligerent actions to stir and foment uprisings and revolts. And in this, Israel and Hamas share an invisible relationship, where both feed from their own belligerency. With Hamas seeking increasingly more political power, it serves as a reason for the Israelis not to be pressured in signing peace, since Hamas does not carry a very good rapport from the West.
Somehow, in some corners of the Israeli government, it does not serve a great purpose to be faced with moderates in Palestinian power. Having an extremist Palestinian foe justifies any sort of violence and seems to be encouraged due to the enemy’s extremist nature.
We have reached many times when Palestinian leaders have complied as much as politically possible; times when calmer and more moderate Palestinian parties negociated, but never beared any fruits. We can remember times when Arafat, who represented the symbol of the Palestinian population, exerted more political will than any other Palestinian government official to date. As corrupt, as his organization was, it nevetheless exerted more effective and precise power over Palestinian affairs with its downsides, of course. It had more abilities on the negociating table, However, it was never given a proposition fair to the Palestinian standards for peace.
If i have to remind the obvious, in an agreement, both sides agree on what is fair to them. It seems however, that on the Palestinian side, it was never proposed a fair chance in order to agree. For obvious reasons, Israel carries an upperhand when it comes to Washington in its long-standing relationship with the U.S, which is positive, however, detrimental when this relationship overbears the decision for Peace with the Palestinians. It shelves neutrality in deciding the fate of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace initiatives. No matter how great the initiatives may have been, it seems the Palestinian side has not had their fair chance at peace, and maybe another reason why these same Palestinians look away from current paralyzed government officials. There has always been a stronger party between the two and it has always been Israel. For that, since the creation of Israel, the aim was to create a country as a Jewish home. However, as President Clinton once said, “the territories of Palestine were not all that vacant before the Israelis came”. That said, Israelis must prepare and should understand, all ideologies of “Greater Israel” set aside, that there are other inhabitants who share these lands, who have the same desires that the Israelis once had. Being nationless and spread throughout the world does not constitute the basis for a people’s pride and dignity. Palestinians desire the same, and as difficult for some Israelis to undestand, it is the truth.
If no changes are made and again, no power intervenes to settle, I do not see a positive future for Palestinians, or for Israel. They are incapable of seperating eachother and let alone living with eachother. I fear one day, it might be the reason for a greater conflict; a conflcit in which we are unprepared for; a conflict in which will test humankind in all its forms.
I just hope i won’t be on this earth to live those days…
Posted by Charles | May 18th, 2007 2:47 am
12..
[…] Speaking of power shifts, it seems, according to Tony Karon, that the current troubles in Gaza are the result of “Mohammed Dahlan, the Gaza warlord who has long been Washington’s anointed favourite to play the role of a Palestinian Pinochet.” […]
Posted by The real power in the Middle East at Antony Loewenstein | May 18th, 2007 7:11 am
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