[WCUSP] Ten Myths about Iraq by Juan Cole

[Odile Hugonot Haber]

Subject: Juan Cole, "Top Ten Myths about Iraq 2007"
Date: Thu, 27 Dec 2007 17:31:21 -0500


http://www.juancole.com/2007/12/top-ten-myths-about-iraq-2007.html
Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Top Ten Myths about Iraq 2007



10. Myth: The US public no longer sees Iraq as a central issue in the
2008 presidential campaign.

In a recent ABC News/ Washington Post poll, Iraq and the economy were
virtually tied among voters nationally, with nearly a quarter of
voters in each case saying it was their number one issue. The economy
had become more important to them than in previous months (in November
only 14% said it was their most pressing concern), but Iraq still
rivals it as an issue!


9. Myth: There have been steps toward religious and political
reconciliation in Iraq in 2007. Fact: The government of Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki has for the moment lost the support of the Sunni Arabs
in parliament. The Sunnis in his cabinet have resigned. Even some
Shiite parties have abandoned the government. Sunni Arabs, who are
aware that under his government Sunnis have largely been ethnically
cleansed from Baghdad, see al-Maliki as a sectarian politician
uninterested in the welfare of Sunnis.

8. Myth: The US troop surge stopped the civil war that had been raging
between Sunni Arabs and Shiites in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

Fact: The civil war in Baghdad escalated during the US troop
escalation. Between January, 2007, and July, 2007, Baghdad went from
65% Shiite to 75% Shiite. UN polling among Iraqi refugees in Syria
suggests that 78% are from Baghdad and that nearly a million refugees
relocated to Syria from Iraq in 2007 alone. This data suggests that
over 700,000 residents of Baghdad have fled this city of 6 million
during the US 'surge,' or more than 10 percent of the capital's
population. Among the primary effects of the 'surge' has been to turn
Baghdad into an overwhelmingly Shiite city and to displace hundreds of
thousands of Iraqis from the capital.


7. Myth: Iran was supplying explosively formed projectiles (a deadly
form of roadside bomb) to Salafi Jihadi (radical Sunni) guerrilla
groups in Iraq. Fact: Iran has not been proved to have sent weapons to
any Iraqi guerrillas at all. It certainly would not send weapons to
those who have a raging hostility toward Shiites. (Iran may have
supplied war materiel to its client, the Supreme Islamic Council of
Iraq (ISCI), which was then sold off from warehouses because of graft,
going on the arms market and being bought by guerrillas and
militiamen.

6. Myth: The US overthrow of the Baath regime and military occupation
of Iraq has helped liberate Iraqi women. Fact: Iraqi women have
suffered significant reversals of status, ability to circulate freely,
and economic situation under the Bush administration.

5. Myth: Some progress has been made by the Iraqi government in
meeting the "benchmarks" worked out with the Bush administration.
Fact: in the words of Democratic Senator Carl Levin, "Those
legislative benchmarks include approving a hydrocarbon law, approving
a debaathification law, completing the work of a constitutional review
committee, and holding provincial elections. Those commitments, made 1
1/2 years ago, which were to have been completed by January of 2007,
have not yet been kept by the Iraqi political leaders despite the
breathing space the surge has provided."

4. Myth: The Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils," who are on the US
payroll, are reconciling with the Shiite government of PM Nuri
al-Maliki even as they take on al-Qaeda remnants. Fact: In interviews
with the Western press, Awakening Council tribesmen often speak of
attacking the Shiites after they have polished off al-Qaeda. A major
pollster working in Iraq observed,
' Most of the recent survey results he has seen about political
reconciliation, Warshaw said, are "more about [Iraqis] reconciling
with the United States within their own particular territory, like in
Anbar. . . . But it doesn't say anything about how Sunni groups feel
about Shiite groups in Baghdad." Warshaw added: "In Iraq, I just don't
hear statements that come from any of the Sunni, Shiite or Kurdish
groups that say 'We recognize that we need to share power with the
others, that we can't truly dominate.' " ' '
The polling shows that "the Iraqi government has still made no
significant progress toward its fundamental goal of national
reconciliation."

3. Myth: The Iraqi north is relatively quiet and a site of economic
growth. Fact: The subterranean battle among Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs
for control of the oil-rich Kirkuk province makes the Iraqi north a
political mine field. Kurdistan now also hosts the Kurdish Workers
Party (PKK) guerrillas that sneak over the border and kill Turkish
troops. The north is so unstable that the Iraqi north is now
undergoing regular bombing raids from Turkey.

2. Myth: Iraq has been "calm" in fall of 2007 and the Iraqi public,
despite some grumbling, is not eager for the US to depart. Fact: in
the past 6 weeks, there have been an average of 600 attacks a month,
or 20 a day, which has held steady since the beginning of November.
About 600 civilians are being killed in direct political violence per
month, but that number excludes deaths of soldiers and police. Across
the board, Iraqis believe that their conflicts are mainly caused by
the US military presence and they are eager for it to end.

1. Myth: The reduction in violence in Iraq is mostly because of the
escalation in the number of US troops, or "surge."

Fact: Although violence has been reduced in Iraq, much of the
reduction did not take place because of US troop activity. Guerrilla
attacks in al-Anbar Province were reduced from 400 a week to 100 a
week between July, 2006 and July, 2007. But there was no significant
US troop escalation in al-Anbar. Likewise, attacks on British troops
in Basra have declined precipitously since they were moved out to the
airport away from population centers. But this change had nothing to
do with US troops.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/26/2007 06:35:00 AM