[WCUSP] Stratfor.com: Lebanon, Israel: Preparations for a major assault on Lebanon

[KATHARLOW at aol.com]

With the White House and money-hungry Congress reduced to silence  by the 
Israel lobby in this election year, Israel apparently believes that it  can do as 
it will in Lebanon as it did when it last invaded Lebanon in  1982.  No one 
should be so confused as to think that Israel is acting as a  proxy for the US 
and that this latest Israeli war crime serves US regional  interests any more 
than does its crimes against humanity in Gaza.



 
____________________________________


Israel:  Preparations for a Major Assault on Lebanon
July 13, 2006 21 53   GMT 

Summary

After days of markedly increasing tensions  between the Israeli government 
and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah,  Israeli forces are preparing to launch a 
major assault against Lebanon to  attempt to eradicate the militants.

Analysis

The Israel  Defense Forces is preparing for a major, sustained assault into 
southern  Lebanon to eliminate the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The 
assault will  extend at least to the Litani River -- the first natural barrier, 
roughly 20  miles into Lebanon -- and possibly all the way to areas south of 
Beirut. The  advance might have been intended for July 16, when the reservists of 
the  Israeli Northern Command who were just activated will have had 72 hours 
to  spin up. However, since rockets fired from Lebanon hit Israel's port city 
of  Haifa on July 13, Israel's 7th Armored, Golani and Barak Brigades -- some 
of  the elite and most decorated units of the regular Israeli army -- might 
push  ahead as far as the Litani and let the reservists catch up later.

If  the IDF makes this push into Lebanon, the Golani Brigade likely will 
advance  in the east, along the Syrian border to the Bekaa Valley. Its advance  
probably will be accompanied by air assaults delivering infantry units to  the 
villages at the valley's base. Penetrating the more populated areas  further up 
the valley will involve difficult, urban fighting.

 (http://web.stratfor.com/images/middleeast/art/israel_lebanon_800.JPG) 


The Barak  Brigade, which received the state-of-the-art Merkava Mark 3 tank 
in 2005,  will advance up the coast along a difficult and potentially mined 
highway. A  Merkava tank was already destroyed by a mine July 12 containing a 
powerful  charge that could have been shaped to penetrate heavy armor. If this is 
the  case, it almost certainly came from foreign sources, either Iran or  
beyond.

The 7th Armored Brigade will advance up the middle, ready to  reinforce 
either the left or right flank. It also could encounter mines.  Besides anti-tank 
mines, Hezbollah is thought to possess anti-tank missiles  more advanced than 
the 1970s-era Soviet AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile. If  Hezbollah's arsenal is 
sufficiently advanced and properly employed, it could  effectively challenge 
Israeli armor.

The longer the IDF waits to push  into Lebanon, and the more brigades it 
amasses, the more likely the Israelis  are planning to drive all the way into 
areas south of Beirut. A push to the  Litani would involve about five brigades; a 
deeper invasion would involve  seven to 12. 

There will be, at the very minimum, heavy Suppression  of Enemy Air Defenses 
operations by the Israeli air force (IAF) along the  Syrian border. The IAF 
will at least heavily jam Syrian radar and employ all  the electronic 
countermeasures it has. If Syria does not make a compelling  public statement of 
abstaining from involvement in the conflict, the IAF  will likely make a pre-emptive 
strike against the Syrian air defense  network, which Israeli planes 
successfully penetrated in June, buzzing  Syrian President Bashar al Assad's private 
residence.

Despite the  political stunt flyby, Syria's air defense network is still 
amply equipped  and its air force boasts, among other aircraft, 80 MiG-29 and 10 
Su-27  fighters. Operationally, Syria has always crumbled when it faced the 
IDF,  and its air defense and pilot training regimens are certainly below par. 
But  nevertheless, Syria's air defense network extends over much of southern  
Lebanon and poses a very real danger to IAF operations over Lebanon. Israel  
successfully devastated this air force in 1982 in a pre-emptive strike. If  the 
Israelis decide that Syria might resist their efforts in Lebanon, Israel  will 
not hesitate to take the network out. A devastating pre-emptive strike  is 
preferable to a protracted engagement with the whole air defense network  at full 
alert -- a much more complex endeavor that would detract from  operations in 
Lebanon. As long as the Israelis leave Syrian assets intact,  they fight with 
an exposed right flank.

The near future will almost  certainly see small firefights as Israeli 
special forces reconnaissance  units take up more positions inside Lebanon. Of 
course, the bulk of these  units will go undetected. IDF shelling and airstrikes 
will continue  unabated. Depending on Hezbollah's endurance and survivability, 
their  rockets will continue to fly as well.

As its forces gather and  reservists kick into high gear, Israel stands on 
the verge of attempting to  completely annihilate Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. 
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